啤酒饮料行业2024年中报总结：市场弱龙头稳，关注企业经营亮点

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The beer industry is experiencing weak demand but maintains strong profitability resilience. In Q2 2024, beer production decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, with a two-year and three-year CAGR of +2.1% and +0.6% respectively. The decline is attributed to pressure on dining consumption and adverse weather conditions. Major A-share beer companies reported a 1.9% decrease in revenue year-on-year in Q2 2024, with sales volume and revenue per ton showing a decline of 3.4% and an increase of 1.6% respectively [3][13][15] - The beverage sector shows significant growth differentiation, with Dongpeng Beverage leading the industry and Kang Shifu maintaining stable growth. Unlike the general growth seen in 2023, 2024 has seen a divergence in performance among companies, with Dongpeng Beverage showcasing strong alpha and Kang Shifu's beverage growth offsetting pressures from its instant noodle business [3][4] Summary by Sections Beer: Weak Demand, Strong Profitability Resilience - The overall industry review indicates weak market demand but strong industry resilience. Q2 2024 beer production from large-scale enterprises was 10.37 million kiloliters, down 4.4% year-on-year, influenced by high base effects from Q2 2023 and weak dining consumption [3][13] - Sales volume in Q2 2024 showed weakness, with regional beer leaders performing better. The average price per ton continued to rise, although at a slower pace compared to previous quarters [3][24] - Cost advantages are being realized, with a slight increase in sales expense ratios. Despite the pressure on demand, profitability metrics such as gross margin and net profit margin for major A-share beer companies improved year-on-year [3][19][35] Beverage: Strong Growth Differentiation - Revenue performance is significantly differentiated, with Dongpeng Beverage leading and Kang Shifu showing stable growth. In Q2 2024, major beverage companies generally experienced negative growth in net profit, highlighting the current pressure on demand and weak channel confidence [3][4] - The cost advantages continue to be realized, but cash flow is under pressure across the sector. Most beverage companies reported expanding gross margins, although some faced rising sales expense ratios [3][4] Investment Recommendations: Focus on Two Ends - The first focus is on high growth and high valuation, with strong recommendations for Yanjing Beer and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to maintain strong performance despite market conditions [4] - The second focus is on high certainty and high dividends, recommending Kang Shifu, Qingdao Beer, and Chongqing Beer as solid investment opportunities based on dividend yield and certainty [4]