2024年A股中期策略：未雨绸缪，蓄势待发

Group 1: Long-term Investment Opportunities in Hard Technology - The long-term investment opportunities in A-shares are centered around hard technology growth under the new quality productivity framework, particularly in areas such as chips, AI, intelligent driving, and humanoid robots [2][12][21] - The overall profit forecast for A-shares has been marginally revised upward, especially for large-cap blue-chip sectors like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300, indicating a stable improvement in fundamentals [2][21] - The government’s recent policies, including the "New National Nine Articles," are expected to stabilize market expectations and alleviate uncertainties, promoting a new phase of quality improvement in the capital market [2][12] Group 2: Real Estate Market Recovery - The real estate market is expected to take time to stabilize, with current challenges likely to gradually ease, particularly as government interventions aim to adjust supply-demand imbalances [2][12] - Recent policies in major cities, such as Beijing, are anticipated to have a demonstration effect on surrounding regions and the national market, potentially improving market conditions over time [2][12] - The rental yield in third-tier cities continues to rise, surpassing that of first-tier cities, indicating a shift in investment dynamics within the real estate sector [2][12] Group 3: Currency Stability and Macro Environment - The short-term fluctuations in the RMB against the USD are contributing to market pressures, but the macroeconomic fundamentals remain robust, providing a solid foundation for long-term currency stability [3][12] - The Chinese economy is currently undergoing a critical phase of industrial upgrading, and a stable exchange rate is essential for fostering a conducive environment for foreign direct investment [3][12] - The anticipated decline in US inflation may support expectations for interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares for investment [3][12] Group 4: Focus on Sustainable Energy and AI - The expansion of AI data centers is expected to significantly increase energy storage demand, highlighting the importance of sustainable energy solutions in the context of rapid technological advancement [2][12][16] - The cumulative installed capacity of energy storage in China has seen substantial growth, with a year-on-year increase of 109% as of May 2024, indicating a strong market trend [2][12][18] - Tesla's rapid development in the energy storage sector is setting new benchmarks for the industry, promoting technological advancements and enhancing local employment and supply chain development [2][12][19]