ZBOM(SH:603801) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-09-03 19:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company achieved operating revenue of 2.21 billion yuan in H1 2024, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 149 million yuan, down 17.0% year-on-year. After excluding stock incentive expenses, the net profit decreased by 6.2% year-on-year [3] - The report anticipates continued growth driven by domestic market improvements and strong overseas channel performance, despite uncertainties in the real estate market [3] - The company’s earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 570 million, 617 million, and 670 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.31, 1.41, and 1.54 yuan [3] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2024, the company faced pressure in retail channels, with revenue from wardrobes and cabinets declining, while the door and wall categories experienced strong growth. Revenue from kitchen cabinets, custom wardrobes, and wooden doors was 966 million, 928 million, and 139 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -3.73%, -5.86%, and +6.88% respectively [4] - Revenue from direct stores, distribution stores, bulk business, and overseas markets was 175 million, 1.166 billion, 606 million, and 86 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.18%, -10.90%, +8.22%, and +42.69% respectively [4] Profitability - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 36.7%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, while the expense ratio increased to 29.4%, up 3.4 percentage points. The net profit margin was 6.7%, down 1.1 percentage points [5] - The company reported an operating cash flow of -260 million yuan in H1 2024, compared to +340 million yuan in H1 2023, primarily due to a decline in sales receipts and an increase in payments for materials, taxes, and project guarantees [5] Financial Forecast Summary - The company’s projected operating revenue for 2024 is 6.075 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.7%. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 570 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 36.8% in 2024, with a net margin of 9.4% [6]