Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with projected EPS for 2024-2026 at RMB 0.21, 0.23, and 0.26 respectively [6] Core Views - Net profit surged by 49.1% YoY to RMB 460 million in H1 2024, driven by downstream recovery and electrification of loaders [2] - Gross margin improved to 18.5%, up 2.0 percentage points YoY, while net margin rose to 8.6%, up 3.2 percentage points [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in construction machinery demand and the acceleration of loader electrification [4][5] Financial Performance - Revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 5.36 billion, down 6.4% YoY, with a significant decline in wheel loader and excavator revenues [2][3] - Forklift revenue grew by 6.4% YoY to RMB 2.06 billion, while other segments faced pressure due to industry slowdown [3] - Overseas revenue declined slightly by 1.68% YoY to RMB 1.47 billion, but its share of total sales increased to 27.4% [4] Industry and Market Outlook - The construction machinery industry is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by increased special bond issuance and improved equipment utilization [4] - The company is strategically adjusting to maintain international market share and competitiveness, with potential for overseas revenue growth [4] - The electrification of loaders is accelerating, with electric loader sales reaching 5,114 units in H1 2024, a 361.1% YoY increase, and an electrification rate of 9.0% [5] Future Growth Drivers - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the electrification trend, with a leading market share in large loaders (3 tons and above) [5] - Long-term growth is supported by stable domestic demand, policy support, and expanding export opportunities [6] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.3% from 2024E to 2026E, reaching RMB 13.47 billion by 2026E [7] - Net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.7% from 2024E to 2026E, reaching RMB 1.13 billion by 2026E [7] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 8.4% in 2024E to 9.8% in 2026E [7]
中国龙工：2024年半年度业绩点评：净利润大幅增长，下游复苏及装载机电动化支撑未来成长