青岛啤酒：Q2量价均承压，期待后续改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company experienced a decline in revenue and beer sales in Q2 2024 due to high base effects and weak demand, with a total revenue of 20.068 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, down 7.1% year-on-year [5]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company's net profit increased by 6.3% year-on-year to 3.642 billion yuan in the same period, indicating improved profitability [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in sales and profitability in the upcoming quarters, driven by cost reductions and effective expense management [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 20.068 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year, while net profit reached 3.642 billion yuan, an increase of 6.3% [5]. - Q2 2024 saw a revenue of 9.918 billion yuan, down 8.9% year-on-year, with net profit at 2.044 billion yuan, up 3.6% [5]. - Beer sales in the first half of 2024 decreased by 7.2% year-on-year, with a volume decline of 7.8% and a price increase of 0.7% [5]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin improved by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year to 41.6% in the first half of 2024, primarily due to declining raw material costs [5]. - The average cost per thousand liters of beer decreased by 3.4% in the first half of 2024 [5]. - The net profit margin increased to 18.1% in the first half of 2024, reflecting enhanced profitability [5][6]. Cash Flow and Liabilities - As of the end of Q2 2024, the company's contract liabilities stood at 5.560 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year [6]. - The operating cash flow for Q2 2024 was 2.861 billion yuan, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year, indicating strong cash generation [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of 3.44, 3.72, and 3.95 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6]. - The report assigns a PE ratio of 20-25 times for 2024, suggesting a fair value range of 68.79 to 85.99 yuan per share [6].