Haitong Securities·2024-09-04 00:42Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index [6][9]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing steady domestic business growth while reducing losses in overseas operations. In H1 2024, the company reported revenues of 60.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a net profit of 8.1 billion yuan [2][6]. - The user base continues to grow, with daily active users (DAU) reaching 395 million and monthly active users (MAU) at 692 million in Q2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and 2.7%, respectively [6][8]. - The online marketing services revenue for Q2 2024 was 17.5 billion yuan, up 22.1% year-on-year, driven by improved advertising strategies and increased demand from various sectors [6][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 127.011 billion yuan, 139.845 billion yuan, and 151.372 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 10.1%, and 8.2% respectively [9][10]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are 14.632 billion yuan, 19.541 billion yuan, and 23.891 billion yuan, with significant growth rates of 128.8%, 33.6%, and 22.3% respectively [9][10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 56.8% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [7][11]. Business Segment Analysis - The online marketing service segment is projected to generate revenues of 73.322 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.6% [10]. - The live streaming segment is expected to see a decline in revenue, with projections of 36.454 billion yuan in 2024, down 6.7% year-on-year [10]. - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) is anticipated to reach 1.3857 trillion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 17% [8][9].