万联证券：万联晨会-20240904

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.29% to 2802.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.26% [2][6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 0.58 trillion yuan [2][6] - Key sectors leading the market included electric power equipment, computers, home appliances, and automobiles, while oil and petrochemicals, banking, and public utilities lagged behind [2][6] Market Review - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.23% to 17651.49 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.29% [2][6] - U.S. markets saw all three major indices decline, with the Dow Jones down 1.51% to 40936.93 points, the S&P 500 down 2.12% to 5528.93 points, and the Nasdaq down 3.26% to 17136.30 points, marking the largest single-day drop since August 5 [2][6] - European and Asia-Pacific indices also closed lower [2][6] Important News - The Shanghai Municipal Government released a plan to promote the replacement of consumer goods, providing significant support for personal vehicle and home appliance upgrades, including subsidies of 20,000 yuan for qualifying new energy vehicles and 15% subsidies for certain home products [3][6] - The relationship between China and Nigeria was elevated to a comprehensive strategic partnership, with both countries aiming for high-quality cooperation to achieve modernization [3][6] Company Analysis: Dongpeng Beverage (605499) - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 7.873 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.19%, and a net profit of 1.731 billion yuan, up 56.17% [7][8] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.391 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.88%, and a net profit of 1.067 billion yuan, up 74.62% [7][8] - The company continues to implement a full-channel strategy, with significant growth in sales across various regions, particularly in the Southwest and North China regions, which saw increases of 75.57% and 99.14% respectively [8][9] Product Performance - The core product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated sales of 6.855 billion yuan, a 33.49% increase, while Dongpeng Water saw a remarkable growth of 281.12% to 476 million yuan [8][9] - The company is transitioning from a single product focus to a multi-category beverage group, enhancing brand recognition and market presence [8][9] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 44.60%, an increase of 1.50 percentage points, driven by lower raw material costs [8][9] - The net profit margin improved to 21.98%, up 1.69 percentage points, due to effective cost control across various expense categories [8][9] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with revised profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicating net profits of 3.094 billion, 3.916 billion, and 5.057 billion yuan respectively [8][9] - The recommendation maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's strong performance and market expansion strategy [8][9]