CHALCO(601600) 国投证券·2024-09-04 03:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company with a 6-month target price of RMB 8.67 per share [4][10] Core Views - The company's profitability has improved significantly due to rising product prices, with H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 105.36% YoY to RMB 7.016 billion [1] - The company's integrated industrial chain advantages are becoming more evident, with active progress in resource acquisition and key projects [8] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 110.718 billion, a YoY decrease of 17.41%, while Q2 revenue was RMB 61.762 billion, down 8.88% YoY but up 26.16% QoQ [1] - H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.016 billion, a YoY increase of 105.36%, with Q2 net profit reaching RMB 4.786 billion, up 198.45% YoY and 114.60% QoQ [1] Segment Performance - Aluminum segment: H1 2024 profit reached RMB 7.595 billion, with a per-ton profit of RMB 2,115.60, up RMB 850.24 YoY [7] - Alumina segment: H1 2024 profit was RMB 4.271 billion, with a per-ton profit of RMB 1,338.87, up RMB 953.45 YoY [7] Production Volume - Primary aluminum: H1 2024 production was 3.63 million tons, up 570,000 tons YoY, with Q2 production at 1.85 million tons, up 70,000 tons QoQ [2] - Metallurgical alumina: H1 2024 production was 8.2 million tons, down 30,000 tons YoY, with Q2 production at 3.95 million tons, down 300,000 tons QoQ [2] Price Trends - Aluminum price: H1 2024 average price was RMB 19,856/ton, up 7.5% YoY, with Q2 average price at RMB 20,643/ton, up 8.3% QoQ and 12.4% YoY [2] - Alumina price: H1 2024 average price was RMB 3,508/ton, up 18.3% YoY, with Q2 average price at RMB 3,648/ton, up 8.4% QoQ and 24.1% YoY [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 238.55 billion, RMB 241.702 billion, and RMB 244.622 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10] - Net profit is projected to reach RMB 11.789 billion, RMB 12.844 billion, and RMB 13.512 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.82 per 10 shares (tax included), totaling approximately RMB 1.407 billion, representing 20.05% of H1 2024 net profit [9]