啤酒行业投资策略报告：销量承压、但毛销差表现强劲，2024年业绩确定性高

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the beer industry, highlighting strong performance in gross profit despite sales pressure in 2024 [2][4]. Core Insights - The beer industry is experiencing sales pressure due to weak consumer demand and adverse weather conditions, but there is strong performance in gross profit margins driven by cost benefits and product upgrades [4][5]. - The report anticipates a significant acceleration in profits in Q3 2024, with a positive outlook for 2025, supported by cost elasticity and ongoing product upgrades [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales Performance and Profitability - In H1 2024, the beer sector's revenue was CNY 40.423 billion, a slight decline of 1.34% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 11.78% to CNY 5.824 billion [4][11]. - Q1 and Q2 revenues were CNY 19.332 billion and CNY 21.091 billion, with year-on-year changes of 0.78% and -1.85%, respectively [4][11]. 2. Market Dynamics - Sales pressure is evident, with major brands like China Resources and Tsingtao facing declines, while regional leaders like Yanjing and Zhujiang show resilience and growth [4][14]. - The report notes a clear differentiation in performance among companies, with Yanjing and Zhujiang benefiting from strong regional sales and effective pricing strategies [4][14]. 3. Cost and Margin Analysis - Cost benefits are being realized, with stable packaging prices and a significant drop in barley costs compared to early 2023, contributing to improved gross margins [4][17]. - The gross profit margin for major companies has shown steady improvement, with Tsingtao's gross margin at 42.79% in Q2 2024, up 2.71 percentage points year-on-year [4][19]. 4. Company Highlights - Tsingtao Brewery's sales volume in H1 2024 was 4.63 million tons, down 7.82% year-on-year, but it maintained a strong gross profit margin [4][25]. - Yanjing Brewery reported a revenue increase of 4.63% in H1 2024, driven by strong performance from its U8 product line [4][26]. - Chongqing Brewery's revenue in Q2 2024 was CNY 4.446 billion, with a sales volume of 917,000 tons, reflecting a 1.53% year-on-year growth [4][28]. - Zhujiang Brewery continues to show strong performance with a revenue increase of 8.07% in Q2 2024, supported by its 97 Pure Draft product [4][29].