Guolian Sec(SH:601456)2024-09-04 04:39Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Guolian Securities with a target price of RMB 13.38 per share [3][4][13]. Core Views - Guolian Securities, a state-owned brokerage, is expected to benefit from its pioneering role in fund advisory, which will enhance its wealth management capabilities. The management team is experienced and trusted by shareholders, positioning the company for growth in asset management and wealth management through synergies [3][4][13]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, Guolian Securities reported revenue of RMB 1.09 billion, a decrease of 39.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 87.71 million, down 85.4% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) was RMB 0.03, with a return on equity (ROE) of 0.5%, reflecting a decline of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [3][4][13]. - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 0.91 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 426.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 31 million, down 22.0% year-on-year, but showing a recovery from previous losses [3][4][13]. Business Segment Performance - Brokerage revenue for H1 2024 was RMB 0.28 billion, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year, accounting for 26% of total revenue. The average daily trading volume in the market was RMB 961.6 billion, down 6.4% year-on-year [3][4][13]. - Investment banking revenue was RMB 0.17 billion, a decline of 39.8% year-on-year, with equity underwriting down 83.5% and bond underwriting down 0.3% [3][4][13]. - Asset management revenue surged to RMB 0.31 billion, up 273.8% year-on-year, with total assets under management (AUM) reaching RMB 124.8 billion, a 6.4% increase year-on-year [3][4][13]. Investment Outlook - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 0.06, 0.07, and 0.07 respectively, with book value per share (BVPS) estimated at RMB 6.37, 6.45, and 6.52 [4][13]. - The report suggests a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.1x for 2024E, aligning with comparable company valuations [4][13].