CSN(SH:600029) China Post Securities·2024-09-04 06:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance in the aviation industry [8][9][11]. Core Views - The civil aviation demand is gradually recovering, with the company showing a significant reduction in losses in the first half of 2024, achieving a revenue of 84.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.23 billion yuan, a reduction in losses by 57.3% [4][8]. - Passenger traffic continues to grow, with a 21.7% increase in capacity input year-on-year, and international routes seeing a remarkable growth of 161.1% [5][8]. - The company’s operating costs have risen in line with business volume, with fuel costs increasing by 22.3% to 27.89 billion yuan, but non-fuel costs per unit have decreased by 5.6% due to improved operational efficiency [6][8]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 159.93 billion yuan in 2023 to 203.57 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.84% [9][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to turn positive by 2024, reaching 0.21 billion yuan, and further increasing to 10.30 billion yuan by 2026 [9][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -0.23 yuan in 2023 to 0.57 yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant turnaround in profitability [9][10].