Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Impact - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is imminent, with a focus on assets that will benefit directly from this change[2] - The expected rate cut in September is likely to be 25 basis points (BP), with a possibility of 50 BP depending on the unemployment rate[6] - The market anticipates a total of 75 BP in rate cuts by the end of the year[7] Group 2: Asset Allocation Recommendations - Overweight U.S. Treasuries and U.S. equities while underweighting the U.S. dollar[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to remain stable, with a slight decline of 1.68% from 2890.9 to 2842.21 points[2] - The NASDAQ index is projected to rise, with a 2.05% increase from 17357.88 to 17713.62 points[2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The 1-year Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate around 1.49%, while the 10-year yield is projected to be 2.17%[2] - The PMI for manufacturing dropped to 49.1%, indicating continued contraction in the sector[10] - Consumer confidence remains weak, with retail sales in the automotive sector declining by 4.9% year-over-year[8]
大类资产配置月报第38期：2024年9月：美联储降息落地在即，关注受益资产
Huaan Securities·2024-09-04 06:31