有色金属脉动跟踪：成本扰动之思

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of cost fluctuations on metal prices, emphasizing that during commodity price declines, the concept of cost support becomes significant. For copper, strong price support is observed at the 90th percentile, while for zinc, it is at the 75-80th percentile [1][11][14][16]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Cost Fluctuations - The report highlights that most metal prices are supported by rising costs, with copper showing strong support at the 90th percentile cost level, estimated at $6,780 per ton for 2023 and projected to rise to $7,100-$7,200 per ton in 2024 [14][16]. - Zinc is noted to have strong support at the 75-80th percentile, with overseas mining costs increasing slightly in 2023 [16][18]. Section 2: Updates on Key Metals - Precious Metals: With the anticipated interest rate cuts in September, gold shows stronger short-term certainty [21]. - Copper: Short-term uncertainty exists, but the medium to long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive due to tightening supply and seasonal demand [22][24]. - Aluminum: High profitability is expected to continue, with potential differentiation in green aluminum production [25]. - Lead and Zinc: Supply tightness is expected to transmit from mining to smelting, leading to price fluctuations [26]. - Tin: Supply disruptions continue, but demand is gradually recovering [27]. - Nickel: Ongoing inventory accumulation leads to price fluctuations [28]. - Tungsten: Prices are rising due to supply-demand dynamics [30]. - Antimony: Inventory accumulation is expected to lead to sales in the second half of the year [31]. - Molybdenum: Strong demand from steelmaking keeps prices high [32]. - Rare Earths: Supply growth is expected to slow significantly, with demand anticipated to recover [33]. - Titanium: The titanium ore market remains stable, but demand for titanium metal is weak [34]. Section 3: Macro Trends and Industry Dynamics - Global PMI is in a downward trend, with the US and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs at 45.8 and 46.8 respectively [36]. - In China, the PMI is at 49.4%, indicating continued pressure, while fixed asset investment remains low [40]. - Recent reports from Chinese copper companies show significant growth in production and profits for the first half of 2024 [43]. Section 4: Metal Prices and Market Performance - Precious Metals: Recent price changes include a 1.56% drop in COMEX silver and a 1.79% increase in LME palladium [48]. - Industrial Metals: LME aluminum fell by 3.45%, while LME lead decreased by 2.01% [52].