Longi(SH:601012) Guolian Securities·2024-09-04 08:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7][10]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 was under pressure, with revenue of 38.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5.24 billion yuan, turning from positive to negative. The gross profit margin was 7.7%, down 11.4 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in performance was mainly due to the significant drop in prices along the silicon industry chain and inventory impairment provisions [3][10]. - The company achieved a breakthrough in HPBC 2.0 mass production technology, with battery efficiency reaching 26.6%. The second-generation BC capacity projects in Xixian (12.5GW) and Tongchuan (12GW) are progressing steadily, with HPBC 2.0 products expected to be launched at scale by the end of 2024. Despite intensified industry competition and price declines, the company is expected to maintain its leading position in the long term due to its technological and scale advantages [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 38.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 40.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of -5.24 billion yuan, compared to a positive profit in the previous year. The gross margin was 7.7%, down 11.4 percentage points year-on-year. Q2 2024 revenue was 20.86 billion yuan, a 42.6% year-on-year decrease but an 18.0% quarter-on-quarter increase [10][11]. - The company's photovoltaic product sales generated revenue of 36.71 billion yuan in H1 2024, down 41.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 6.5%. Silicon wafer shipments were 44.44GW, with external sales of 21.96GW, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year. Module shipments were 31.34GW, an increase of 17.6% year-on-year, with approximately 10GW of BC shipments [10][11]. Technological Advancements - The company has focused on long-term stable operations and technological upgrades, achieving a battery efficiency of 26.6% for HPBC 2.0. The module conversion efficiency reached 24.43%, with a bifacial rate exceeding 70%. The company continues to push for cost reduction across the entire value chain, with HPBC 2.0 battery costs expected to be on par with TOPCon [10][11]. Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 86.74 billion yuan, 121.53 billion yuan, and 143.05 billion yuan, representing year-on-year changes of -33.0%, +40.1%, and +17.7%, respectively. The net profit forecasts are -3.29 billion yuan, 4.71 billion yuan, and 8.37 billion yuan, with growth rates of -/-/77.5% [10][11].