Great Wall Securities·2024-09-04 10:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [4][14]. Core Views - China Shenhua's performance in the first half of 2024 met expectations, demonstrating stable operations as an integrated energy giant despite pressures from declining coal prices [3][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, ensuring shareholder returns [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 168.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [2][3]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders was 29.504 billion yuan, down 11.3% year-on-year [2][3]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The basic EPS for H1 2024 was 1.485 yuan, a decrease of 11.3% year-on-year [2][3]. - Return on Equity (ROE): The weighted average ROE was 7.32%, down 1.27 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Segment Performance Summary - Coal Business: - Coal production reached 163 million tons in H1 2024, up 1.6% year-on-year, while coal sales increased by 5.4% to 230 million tons [3][8]. - The average selling price of coal was 566.15 yuan/ton, down 5.8% year-on-year [3][8]. - Gross profit per ton of coal was 147.01 yuan, a decrease of 17.45% year-on-year [3][8]. - Power Generation: - Total power generation was 104.04 billion kWh, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year [8]. - The average selling price for coal-fired electricity was 403 yuan/MWh, down 3.13% year-on-year [8]. - The gross profit per MWh for coal-fired power was 43.86 yuan, down 15.86% year-on-year [8]. - Transportation and Other Segments: - The railway segment saw a transportation volume of 161.4 billion ton-km, up 7.3% year-on-year [9]. - The port segment handled coal shipments of 11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [9]. - The coal chemical segment reported a revenue of 2.538 billion yuan, down 15.5% year-on-year [9]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to be 336.12 billion yuan in 2024, 347.39 billion yuan in 2025, and 362.60 billion yuan in 2026 [9]. - Net profit is expected to be 59.87 billion yuan in 2024, 64.16 billion yuan in 2025, and 67.82 billion yuan in 2026 [9]. - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 3.01 yuan, 3.23 yuan, and 3.41 yuan respectively [9].