Donghai Securities·2024-09-04 13:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price relative to the market index over the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 420.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 6.03% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170.5 billion yuan, down 1.89% year-on-year [19]. - Total assets reached 47.12 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.89%, while the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.35%, a slight decrease of 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter [19]. - The net interest margin (NIM) for the first half was 1.43%, showing a decline of 29 basis points year-on-year [19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has experienced a slowdown in loan growth due to weak demand and a shift away from scale-driven growth, with a significant reduction in corporate loans and a net decrease in personal loans [22]. - The asset quality remains stable, with the NPL ratio at its lowest level in recent years, and the provision coverage ratio improved to 218.43% [24][25]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 8160 billion, 8257 billion, and 8817 billion yuan, and 3609 billion, 3656 billion, and 3802 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a slight decrease in growth expectations [42]. - The report indicates a projected decline in the net interest margin to 1.37% in 2024, with a gradual recovery expected thereafter [42]. Risk and Asset Quality - The report highlights a rise in credit risk in personal loans, while corporate loan asset quality is improving, particularly in sectors like manufacturing and real estate [25]. - The overall asset quality is expected to remain stable despite some pressures in the retail sector, with a focus on maintaining prudent recognition and disposal of non-performing loans [25].