Shanghai YanPu(SH:605128) Huaan Securities·2024-09-04 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has been selected as a Tier 1 supplier for a new automotive seat frame project, confirming its growth logic [2] - The new project is expected to start mass production in October 2025, with a projected revenue of approximately 2.09 billion yuan over a 5-year lifecycle [2] - The company is transitioning from a Tier 2 to a Tier 1 supplier, indicating an upgrade in its supplier role and capabilities [2] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with forecasts indicating a 73.1% increase in revenue for 2024 and a compound annual growth rate of 37% from 2024 to 2026 [2][6] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.52 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.63 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.4% [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from 91 million yuan in 2023 to 173 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a 99.3% year-on-year growth [5][6] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 15.5% in 2024, slightly down from 16.1% in 2023, but expected to improve to 17.0% by 2026 [6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 7.6% in 2023 to 13.2% in 2024, reaching 17.9% by 2026 [6] Cash Flow and Investment - Operating cash flow is expected to increase significantly from 53 million yuan in 2023 to 424 million yuan in 2024 [4] - The company is projected to have a net cash increase of 225 million yuan in 2025, following a negative cash flow in 2024 [4] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 50.92 in 2023 to 17.98 in 2024, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [6] - The enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is projected to decline from 17.54 in 2023 to 10.73 in 2024, suggesting a more favorable valuation as the company grows [6]