Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (first-time) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report systematically updates the existing research framework for the education sector under the new regulatory environment, emphasizing a short-term focus on policy and a medium to long-term focus on supply and demand [2][4] - The report highlights the significant recovery potential of core companies in the education sector, suggesting that performance is expected to return to high growth levels [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Policy and Demand - The report outlines favorable policies for the education sector, particularly in quality education training, and notes that non-subject training is becoming a beneficial supplement to school education [4][25] - The average per capita consumption expenditure of residents reached 13,601 yuan in the first half of this year, with education and cultural entertainment spending growing by 11.2%, indicating strong current demand for education [4][15] - The number of students in regular high schools and the number of college entrance examination applicants are expected to peak around 2030/2035, confirming strong medium-term demand for education [4][15] Supply Side - The report indicates a significant reduction in supply due to policy impacts, with a 96% reduction in offline subject training institutions by October 2022 [11][4] - The education sector is experiencing a shift towards quality education, with the market for quality education expected to reach 606 billion yuan by 2027, doubling from 2022 [5][28] Sector Allocation Strategy - The report recommends a sector allocation strategy prioritizing quality education training, followed by high school education, vocational education, and higher education [5] - Specific companies to watch include New Oriental, TAL Education, and others in the quality education sector, as they are expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions [5][6] Company Performance - New Oriental is projected to achieve revenue of 4.314 billion USD and a Non-GAAP net profit of 381 million USD in FY2024, indicating a strong recovery post-regulatory changes [116] - TAL Education is actively transitioning to quality education, with significant growth in its non-academic courses, reflecting a robust demand for quality education [121][123] - The report notes that the overall market for quality education is expected to surpass that of subject education by 2027, highlighting the growth potential in this segment [114]
教育行业研究框架及观点更新:柳暗花明又一村
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2024-09-05 00:38