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8月房企销售数据点评:淡季延续,关注收储进展
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-09-05 01:08

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the real estate sector, specifically recommending companies like China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China New Town Development [18][22]. Core Insights - In August, the sales revenue of the top 50 real estate companies declined by 18% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 2 percentage points compared to July. The market is still in a recovery phase, and the performance of state-owned enterprises remains significantly stronger than that of private enterprises [4][10]. - The report anticipates that the traditional off-peak season is ending, and it will continue to monitor whether the "Golden September and Silver October" sales period will materialize as expected [3][4]. - The report highlights that the sales performance of state-owned enterprises showed a positive growth of 3%, while private enterprises experienced a decline of 41% [4][10]. - The report notes that the number of companies with monthly sales exceeding 10 billion yuan has decreased to four, including Poly, China Overseas, China Resources, and Vanke [4][16]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The top 50 real estate companies recorded a total sales revenue of 165.5 billion yuan in August, which is below the average of the first seven months of the year [4][8]. - The report indicates that the sales pattern over the past two years shows a trend of stronger performance in the first half of the year compared to the second half [4][16]. Market Dynamics - The report mentions that 29 cities have released guidelines for the first batch of housing source collection, focusing on location, housing qualifications, and pricing [4][16]. - Over 50 cities have expressed support for state-owned enterprises to collect housing stock, with specific requirements outlined for the types of properties being sought [4][16]. Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a dual allocation strategy, recommending low-leverage leading companies while also paying attention to restructuring progress in companies like CIFI Holdings and Sunac China [4][10].