望变电气2024年中报点评：输配电板块高速增长，取向硅钢拖累业绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 1.425 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 77.42% to 35 million yuan, which was below expectations [1][3]. - Due to the decline in oriented silicon steel prices, the net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 213 million yuan and 221 million yuan, respectively, from the previous estimates of 406 million yuan and 525 million yuan. A new forecast for 2026 has been added at 298 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.64/0.66/0.89 yuan for 2024/2025/2026 [1][11]. - The company has acquired a 79.97% stake in Yunbian Electric, a key transformer manufacturer, which is expected to contribute significantly to the growth of the power distribution segment, with a revenue contribution of 228 million yuan since its consolidation on April 1, 2024, leading to a year-on-year growth of 39.41% in this segment [1][3]. - The decline in oriented silicon steel prices has negatively impacted performance, with the sales price dropping by 5,761 yuan/ton and the unit sales cost decreasing by 1,951 yuan/ton, resulting in a gross profit reduction of 149 million yuan. However, the company’s sales volume of oriented silicon steel increased by 24,000 tons year-on-year, contributing an additional gross profit of 11 million yuan [1][10]. - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan, granting 2.55 million restricted shares to 57 individuals, which is expected to enhance the long-term incentive mechanism [1][3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 3.049 billion yuan, a 12.2% increase from 2023, with a net profit of 213 million yuan, reflecting a 9.3% decrease [2][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.64 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 16.16 [2][11]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 5.67 billion yuan by 2024, with total liabilities of 3.098 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 54.6% [10].