Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight revenue increase of 3.9% year-on-year to 7.176 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 16.1% to 1.49 billion RMB, slightly exceeding expectations [2]. - The formulation segment, particularly the animal health and insulin products, showed strong sales performance, with revenues increasing by 25.7% and 11.3% respectively, despite a 1.5% decline in human antibiotic sales due to centralized procurement impacts [2]. - The intermediate and active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) segments also performed well, with revenues increasing by 25.4% and 1.2% respectively, indicating robust demand outside of human antibiotics [2]. - The company expects the animal health business to maintain rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 18.6% from 2023 to 2026, while insulin revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.5% over the same period [2]. - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards by 5.4%, 4.8%, and 1.8% respectively, but raises net profit forecasts by 0.2%, 1.8%, and 4.2% for the same periods due to a decrease in sales expense ratios [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024E is projected at 14.445 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 5.1% [4]. - Net profit for 2024E is expected to reach 2.883 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 6.8% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is estimated at 1.59 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.3 [4]. Business Segments - The formulation segment's revenue is projected to be 4.883 billion RMB in 2024E, with a slight decline due to antibiotic sales [4]. - The intermediate segment is expected to generate 2.660 billion RMB in 2024E, benefiting from high demand for 6-APA [4]. - The API segment is forecasted to achieve 6.902 billion RMB in revenue for 2024E, with a stable growth outlook [4]. Valuation - The target price is set at 11.90 HKD, based on a rolling P/E of 6.5 times the 2025E earnings [3][5]. - The current market price is 9.21 HKD, indicating a potential upside of over 20% [5].
联邦制药：2024上半年盈利略超预期，未来将稳健增长