AI基金富国港股通红利精选混合A（021513）披露2025年二季报，第二季度基金利润1297.94万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.1234元。报告期内，基金净 值增长率为13.86%，截至二季度末，基金规模为2.61亿元。 基金管理人在二季报中表示，本季度，组合加仓了黄金和铜为主的有色板块仓位。在价格稳中有升的背景下，这些股票的估值性价比很高。由于基金申购相 对原来规模较高，我们在季度末保持低仓位，等待加仓时机。 截至7月21日，富国港股通红利精选混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为14.80%，位于同类可比基金156/615；近半年复权单位净值增长率为28.46%，位于 同类可比基金33/615。 通过所选区间该基金净值增长率分位图，可以观察该基金与同类基金业绩比较情况。图为坐标原点到区间内某时点的净值增长率在同类基金中的分位数。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金。截至7月21日，单位净值为1.304元。基金经理是宁君和张峰，目前共同管理2只基金。 截至6月27日，基金成立以来夏普比率为0.3175。 截至7月18日，基金成立以来最大回撤为9.86%。单季度最大回撤出现在2025年二季度，为8.49%。 据定期报 ...

Summary of Federal Pharmaceuticals Conference Call Company Overview - Federal Pharmaceuticals has a comprehensive pipeline of innovative drugs in small molecules, weight loss, diabetes, and autoimmune disease sectors [2][3] - The second-generation gastrointestinal hormone pipeline UBT 37,034 (PYY target) has received IND approval in the U.S. for weight loss and diabetes, indicating significant market potential [2][3] Core Business Development - The main business includes raw material intermediates, anti-infection preparations, and insulin products [4] - The company smooths out cyclical fluctuations in the raw material drug industry through a business integration model and extends into downstream formulation areas, enhancing overall profitability [4] - Revenue increased from 8.4 billion to 13.75 billion CNY from 2019 to 2023, while profit rose from 530 million to 2.7 billion CNY, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth due to product price increases and high gross margins [2][6] Future Development Focus - Future development priorities include traditional businesses (raw materials and antibiotics), international expansion of insulin products, and the animal health sector, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth by 2025 [5][7] - Increased R&D investment is planned to drive more innovative drugs into clinical stages [7] Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2023, revenue grew significantly, with profit growth driven by product price increases and high gross margins [6] - Sales and management expense ratios are declining, indicating improved operational efficiency [6] International Market Expansion - Federal Pharmaceuticals is actively expanding into international markets, exporting insulin and raw material intermediates [9] - The company has the largest global capacity for 6APA, and the utilization rate of cephalosporin intermediates is increasing, enhancing international competitiveness [9] R&D and Product Pipeline - The company focuses on endocrine metabolism and autoimmune diseases, particularly in diabetes and weight management [11] - The global weight loss drug market is projected to exceed 120 billion USD, with sales surpassing 53 billion USD in 2024 [12][13] - The UBT 251 project is progressing rapidly, with promising results in weight loss efficacy [15] Strategic Partnerships - A significant licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for the GLP-1 injection UBT 251 was established, reflecting the strength of Chinese innovation in pharmaceuticals [3][4][13] Future Product Launches - Expected product launches include UBT 251 for weight loss by 2028 and for diabetes by 2029, along with several JAK1-related products for atopic dermatitis and other autoimmune diseases [18] Conclusion - Federal Pharmaceuticals is positioned for significant growth with a strong pipeline of innovative drugs, strategic international expansion, and a focus on R&D, which is expected to lead to substantial profit improvements in the coming years [19]

Macro Strategy - The "Great Beautiful Act" has been quickly implemented, but its distribution effects and the tightening fiscal impact from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts limit its growth stimulus for the US economy [1][24] - The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][24] - In the short term, concerns about the impact of US Treasury issuance on market liquidity and yield premiums are not excessive; however, the long-term path dependency of unsustainable US government debt makes it difficult for Treasury yield premiums to decrease [1][24] Fixed Income - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident as the stock market stabilizes, influencing bond yields; the 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week [3][5] - The bond market's reaction to Trump's threats of additional tariffs on BRICS countries was muted, indicating a limited impact on bond yields [3][5] - The bond yield's upward trend is expected to continue, influenced by stock market performance, but the extent of the increase is likely to be limited [5] Industry Insights - Wanda Film's diversified layout in esports and concert live streaming is expected to create new growth points, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.0 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.44 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Lianlian Digital is projected to achieve a reasonable P/S valuation of 8.0x and 7.0x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, as it continues to expand its business [10] - Youyou Foods has revised its profit forecast upwards, expecting net profits of 232 million, 285 million, and 329 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth rate of 47.2%, 23.2%, and 15.3% [11] - Siyi Electric's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 1.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%, driven by strong overseas orders [14][15] - The energy sector, represented by Furan Energy, anticipates stable growth in natural gas supply and a steady increase in new energy business, with net profit forecasts of 872 million, 922 million, and 976 million yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - The lithium battery sector, represented by Weilan Lithium Core, has revised its profit expectations upwards, forecasting net profits of 750 million, 1 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting significant growth [13] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Lianbang Pharmaceutical, is expected to see revenue growth driven by innovative drug development, with net profits projected at 3.11 billion, 3.10 billion, and 3.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [21]

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·药品及生物科技(HS) 联邦制药（03933.HK） 创新突破，三靶点战略联姻诺和诺德 2025 年 07 月 12 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 13,754 | 13,759 | 13,860 | 15,001 | 16,261 | | 同比(%) | 21.15 | 0.03 | 0.74 | 8.23 | 8.40 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,701 | 2,660 | 3,112 | 3,102 | 3,384 | | 同比(%) | 70.85 | (1.54) | 17.00 | (0.32) | 9.09 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.49 | 1.46 | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.86 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 8.73 | 8.87 | 7.58 | 7.60 | 6.97 | [Table_Tag] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the innovative drug sector, expecting significant revenue growth and potential profitability for several companies in the first half of 2025 [3][8]. Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is projected to see revenue growth of at least 40% year-on-year for companies such as BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others, driven by the commercialization of core products [3][8]. - The Pharma sub-sector is expected to experience a revenue growth rate of 10-15% for companies like Hansoh Pharmaceutical and China Biologic Products, while others may see growth of 5-10% [3][8]. - The medical services sector is anticipated to have a revenue growth of 15-20% for companies like GuoShengTang, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions [3][8]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - Companies expected to achieve over 40% revenue growth in 1H25 include BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others, primarily due to the commercialization of key products [3][8]. - Some companies, such as BeiGene and Innovent Biologics, are likely to reach profitability due to increased sales volume [3][8]. - The report highlights that companies like Hutchison China MediTech may see significant profit growth due to asset disposals [3][8]. Pharma - The impact of centralized procurement is gradually diminishing, allowing for continued innovation and transformation within the sector [3][8]. - Companies projected to achieve 10-15% revenue growth include Hansoh Pharmaceutical and China Biologic Products, while others like 3SBio and United Laboratories may see 5-10% growth [3][8]. Medical Services - GuoShengTang is expected to have a revenue growth of 15-20% in 1H25, with ongoing attention to domestic and international acquisition activities [3][8].

Group 1 - Jichuan Pharmaceutical's "Children's Constipation Granules" has received a registration application acceptance notice, marking it as the first innovative traditional Chinese medicine specifically for treating pediatric constipation [1] - The product is expected to be the first Class 1 pediatric-specific drug for constipation following the release of the clinical research guidelines in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Innovent Biologics' drug Daberat® has become the first KRAS G12C inhibitor approved in Macau, providing a new targeted therapy for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer [2] - In a Phase II clinical trial, Daberat® demonstrated an objective response rate (ORR) of 49.1%, a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 9.7 months, and a 12-month overall survival (OS) rate of 54.4% [2] Group 3 - Sinovac Biotech's special shareholders meeting approved the election of 10 new directors proposed by SAIF Partners, who committed to support the company's dividend distribution plan [3] - The new board members aim to work closely with management to restore trading of the company's common stock and enhance long-term shareholder value [3] Group 4 - Ganli Pharmaceutical expects a net profit increase of 100.73% to 114.12% for the first half of 2025, with projected profits between 600 million to 640 million yuan [4] - The company achieved market share expansion through two rounds of insulin procurement, with a significant 32.6% increase in agreement volume during the 2024 procurement [4] Group 5 - Ascentage Pharma's new Bcl-2 inhibitor, Lisangtuo® (APG-2575), has been conditionally approved for marketing in China, becoming the first Bcl-2 inhibitor for chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma [5] - This marks Ascentage Pharma's second innovative drug to be approved and enter the commercialization stage [5] Group 6 - United Biomedical's UBT37034 injection has received FDA approval for clinical trials, showing significant weight reduction effects when combined with GLP-1 analogs in preclinical studies [6] - The combination therapy demonstrated superior weight loss effects compared to other investigational drugs [6]

Group 1 - The National Healthcare Security Administration has released the adjustment plan for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance drug catalog, which includes a new commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog, potentially accelerating the commercialization of innovative drugs and enhancing investor confidence in the pharmaceutical sector [1] Group 2 - WuXi AppTec expects a net profit of approximately 8.561 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 101.92%, driven by both core business and non-recurring gains, indicating strengthened competitiveness in the global pharmaceutical market [2] Group 3 - As the second Bcl-2 inhibitor approved globally, Ascentage Pharma's "Lisenglitazone" is expected to capture market share quickly, enhancing investor confidence and boosting the company's valuation in the innovative drug sector [3] Group 4 - Federated Pharmaceutical's innovative drug "UBT37034 injection" has received FDA approval for clinical trials targeting overweight or obesity, indicating significant market potential and enhancing the company's competitiveness in the innovative drug field [4] Group 5 - North China Pharmaceutical expects a net profit of approximately 124 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of around 72%, attributed to improved management and operational efficiency, which strengthens investor confidence in the company's future growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Federated Biotech (Zhuhai Hengqin) Co., Ltd., received FDA approval for its innovative drug UBT37034 injection, which is aimed at treating overweight or obesity [1] Drug Development - UBT37034 is a novel peptide receptor agonist that selectively targets neuropeptide Y2 receptors to aid in weight loss [1] - Preclinical studies in various animal models indicate that UBT37034, when used in conjunction with GLP-1 analogs, can significantly reduce body weight [1] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its commitment to new product development to enhance its competitiveness and creativity in the biopharmaceutical industry [1] - The anticipated outcomes from these developments are expected to generate greater returns for the company and its shareholders [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a $180 million upfront payment from Novo Nordisk to Federated Pharmaceuticals marks the activation of a significant licensing agreement for the weight-loss drug UBT251, with potential total revenues reaching $2 billion [3][4]. Financial Performance - Federated Pharmaceuticals reported a slight revenue increase of 0.14% year-on-year, totaling 13.759 billion yuan for 2024, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.54% to 2.66 billion yuan, breaking a multi-year trend of double-digit growth [3][4]. - The company's financial structure remains heavily reliant on traditional business segments, with intermediates and raw materials accounting for 60%-65% of revenue [6]. Market Reaction - The capital market's reaction to the licensing agreement was unexpectedly negative, with Federated Pharmaceuticals' stock price dropping 11.78% following the announcement, reflecting investor concerns over structural challenges during the company's transition [3][4]. Drug Development and Competition - The UBT251 project is entering a critical phase of clinical concept validation, with data expected in the next 18-24 months to determine its commercial viability [4][6]. - The competitive landscape for the generic version of semaglutide is intensifying, with multiple companies, including Jiuyuan Gene and Lijun Group, also developing similar products [4][5]. Strategic Challenges - The company faces significant challenges in balancing innovation investments with the need to stabilize its traditional business, particularly as the formulation product profits plummeted by 47% due to price reductions from national drug procurement policies [5][6]. - Novo Nordisk's substantial upfront payment is seen as a response to its urgent need for new products to maintain market leadership, especially as its flagship product's patent is set to expire in 2026 [6][7].

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector has recently experienced a significant pullback, with the innovative drug concept seeing a net outflow of nearly 2.5 billion yuan in A-shares [1] - The Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF (517380) reached a new high for the year before experiencing a substantial decline, dropping 2.75% with a trading volume of 22 million yuan, and most constituent stocks fell nearly 5% [1] - The Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF is the only product tracking the Hang Seng-Hu-Shen-Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selected 50 Index, which includes leading innovative drug companies from the three markets [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities predicts that 2025 will mark the explosive growth of China's innovative drug industry, driven by three core factors: significant BD transactions, profitability turning points for leading companies, and an improving policy environment [2] - Guosheng Securities acknowledges short-term trading pullback risks but emphasizes the solid underlying logic and clear trends in the innovative drug sector, maintaining a positive outlook for the innovative drug bull market [2] - The market size of China's innovative drugs is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.1% [2]