美国大储深度报告：需求篇：现实与预期共振向上，多维度支撑增长

Group 1: Current Market Status - The U.S. large-scale energy storage market currently exhibits weak reality and weak expectations, with significant upward potential[3] - In FY 2023, the U.S. large-scale energy storage added 7.91 GW/24 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 99%/111%[10] - The actual grid connection in FY 2023 was 6.57 GW, a 57% increase year-on-year, with California, Texas, and Arizona being the top three states[10] Group 2: Demand Drivers - The primary drivers of demand for large-scale energy storage in the U.S. are the retirement of old coal-fired power plants and the rapid increase in photovoltaic (PV) installations[3] - The U.S. market is categorized into three segments: stable growth markets (California), rapid growth markets (Texas), and emerging markets (other regions) where demand for storage is expected to surge[3] Group 3: Trends and Challenges - The construction of high-voltage power grids is slow due to lengthy planning processes and increased investment requirements, which creates a backlog in grid connection[3] - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2023 aims to expedite the grid connection process starting in 2025, potentially alleviating some of the backlog issues[3] Group 4: Economic Viability - The internal rate of return (IRR) analysis indicates that interest rate cuts and reduced system costs will significantly stimulate demand for large-scale energy storage in the U.S.[3] - The projected tax on energy storage batteries in 2026 is expected to drive a rush in installations in 2025, benefiting companies with strong cost control and channel capabilities[3] Group 5: Risks - Potential risks include a downturn in U.S. renewable energy and storage demand, increased competition affecting profit margins, and instability in policy implementation[4]