ADAMA(000553) 东兴证券·2024-09-05 02:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance due to a sluggish agricultural market, but a differentiated strategy is expected to drive long-term growth [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of 14.91 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-over-year decline of 13.58%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.895 billion yuan [1]. - The agricultural pesticide market is facing intense competition, leading to a decrease in average selling prices by 10% and a 4% drop in sales volume [1]. - The company has initiated the "Advancement Plan" to improve business quality and focus on value innovation in niche segments, which is anticipated to enhance product offerings and reduce production costs [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in market demand as inventory depletion in overseas markets nears completion, which could lead to a rebound in pesticide prices and improvement in overall revenue and profit levels [1][2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.99 billion yuan, 3.73 billion yuan, and 5.26 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.04, 0.16, and 0.23 yuan [2][3]. - The current P/E ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 103, 27, and 19 times, respectively [2][5]. - Revenue is expected to decline from 32.78 billion yuan in 2023 to 29 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of -12.31% [3][6]. Company Overview - The company, formerly known as Shalon, became a global leader in non-patent pesticides after acquiring ADAMA Solutions in 2017 [4]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 10.205 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 9.536 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a total share capital of 232.981 million shares, with 217.707 million shares circulating [4].