ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-09-05 03:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 41.08 CNY [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the company is expected to maintain a stable performance despite challenges in coal prices and external expenditures. The company has shown resilience in its operations, particularly in coal production and electricity generation [6][10] - The projected revenue and net profit for the company are expected to grow steadily over the next few years, with earnings per share also on an upward trend [10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company’s revenue for 2022 was 344.53 billion CNY, with a slight decrease to 343.07 billion CNY in 2023. It is projected to be 344.08 billion CNY in 2024, followed by 353.30 billion CNY in 2025 and 358.87 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a growth rate of 3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026 [2] - Net Profit: The net profit for 2022 was 69.63 billion CNY, which is expected to decrease to 59.69 billion CNY in 2023. It is projected to recover to 63.52 billion CNY in 2024, with further increases to 65.09 billion CNY in 2025 and 67.03 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 6% in 2024 and 3% in 2026 [2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS is projected to be 3.50 CNY in 2024, increasing to 3.37 CNY in 2026 [2] - Return on Equity (ROE): The ROE is expected to stabilize at around 13% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Operational Highlights - Coal Production and Sales: In the first half of 2024, the company produced 163 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 1.56%, and sold 230 million tons, up 5.42% year-on-year. The average selling price of coal decreased by 5.82% to 566 CNY per ton [7] - Electricity Generation: The total electricity generation for the first half of 2024 was 1040.4 billion kWh, a 5.89% increase year-on-year, while the average selling price of electricity decreased by 3.35% to 404 CNY per MWh [8] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12.8X in 2024, decreasing to 12.2X by 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [10] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 2.1 in 2024 to 1.8 in 2026, suggesting an increasing value proposition for investors [2]