中国东航：国际航线恢复加速，回购股份增强信心

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Eastern Airlines is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 3.79 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that China Eastern Airlines has significantly reduced its net losses in H1 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, with a net loss of 2.768 billion CNY and a non-recurring net loss of 2.967 billion CNY [2]. - The company is optimizing its flight network and increasing international flight recovery rates, leading to a rapid recovery in operations [2]. - The report projects a decrease in profit forecasts for 2024-2026 due to industry supply being relatively loose and declining ticket prices, with expected net profits of 2.1 billion CNY in 2024, 7.1 billion CNY in 2025, and 9.3 billion CNY in 2026 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022A: 46,111 million CNY - 2023A: 113,741 million CNY - 2024E: 142,909 million CNY - 2025E: 160,850 million CNY - 2026E: 172,361 million CNY - YoY growth rates: -31% in 2022, 147% in 2023, 26% in 2024, 13% in 2025, 7% in 2026 [1][2]. - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: -37,386 million CNY - 2023A: -8,168 million CNY - 2024E: 2,109 million CNY - 2025E: 7,147 million CNY - 2026E: 9,311 million CNY - YoY growth rates: -206% in 2022, 78% in 2023, 126% in 2024, 239% in 2025, 30% in 2026 [1][2]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: -1.68 CNY - 2023A: -0.37 CNY - 2024E: 0.09 CNY - 2025E: 0.32 CNY - 2026E: 0.42 CNY [1][2]. - Valuation Ratios: - P/E ratios: -2.3 in 2022, -10.3 in 2023, 40.1 in 2024, 11.8 in 2025, 9.1 in 2026 [1][2]. Operational Highlights - In H1 2024, the company added 10 aircraft, bringing the total to 792 operational passenger aircraft with an average age of 9.0 years [2]. - The recovery of international routes accelerated, with available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) reaching 110% and 108% of 2019 levels, respectively [2]. - The average passenger load factor in H1 2024 was 81.21%, an increase of 9.45 percentage points compared to H1 2023 [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to inject 4.5 billion CNY into its subsidiary Shanghai Airlines to enhance its capital strength and reduce its debt ratio [2]. - A share buyback plan is in place, with a minimum of 250 million CNY and a maximum of 500 million CNY allocated for repurchasing shares, reflecting management's confidence in the company's future [2].