森麒麟：Q2半钢需求持续旺盛叠加少量退税带来盈利提升，全钢略有承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in Q2 2024, with revenue of 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a net profit of 1.077 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 77.7% [7][8]. - The demand for semi-steel tires remains robust, contributing to the company's revenue growth, while full-steel tires face some pressure [7][8]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, particularly with the upcoming launch of its Morocco facility, which is expected to enhance its high-end product offerings and mitigate trade barriers [8][9]. Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 7.842 billion yuan, with projections of 9.747 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 24.3% [7][9]. - The net profit for 2023 was 1.369 billion yuan, with an expected increase to 2.308 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 68.7% [7][9]. - The gross margin improved to 33.2% in the first half of 2024, up from 25.2% in 2023, driven by product mix and tax rebate benefits [7][8]. Production and Sales Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company produced 16.09 million tires, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with semi-steel tire production reaching 15.6 million units [7][8]. - The sales volume for the first half of 2024 was 15.1 million tires, with semi-steel tire sales at 14.61 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.35% [7][8]. - The second quarter saw a production of approximately 8.01 million tires, with semi-steel tire production estimated at 7.856 million units [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain its profit forecast for 2024-2026, with projected net profits of 2.31 billion yuan, 2.46 billion yuan, and 2.81 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of approximately 10, 10, and 8 [8][9]. - The Morocco facility is anticipated to contribute significantly to production capacity and revenue starting in 2025, with initial orders already secured from North American clients [8][9].