有色金属行业点评：单月钢招量创新高，钼价长期看好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, with a rating of "看好" (positive) as of September 5, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The monthly bidding volume for molybdenum iron from domestic steel mills reached a record high of 14,600 tons in August 2024, indicating strong downstream demand despite the season being relatively slow [1][3]. - The total bidding volume for the first eight months of 2024 was 98,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19% [1][3]. - The demand in the shipbuilding, chemical, and wind power sectors remains robust, supporting the overall growth in the manufacturing industry [5]. - Molybdenum is primarily used in alloy steel, stainless steel, tool steel, and cast iron, making it a crucial additive for manufacturing upgrades [1][5]. - The price of molybdenum concentrate remains high, with a price of 3,680 yuan per ton as of August 30, 2024, which is 66% of the 2023 peak price of 5,600 yuan per ton, indicating significant price elasticity [10]. Summary by Sections Steel Bidding Volume - In August 2024, the domestic steel mills' bidding volume for molybdenum iron reached 14,600 tons, a new high for the year [1][3]. - The total bidding volume from January to August 2024 was 98,000 tons, up 19% year-on-year [1][3]. Manufacturing Demand - The demand in high-end manufacturing sectors such as shipbuilding and chemicals is strong, with shipbuilding completion volume increasing by 18.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [5]. - Fixed investment in the chemical industry grew by 9.9% year-on-year from January to July 2024, indicating sustained high demand [5]. Molybdenum Price Dynamics - Molybdenum concentrate prices are expected to maintain high levels, with significant price elasticity due to low downstream cost proportions [10]. - The current price of molybdenum concentrate is 3,680 yuan per ton, which is significantly lower than the peak price in 2023, suggesting potential for price increases as demand rises [10].