农业行业深度报告：猪周期比较研究和当前投资策略

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Market Perform - A" for the agriculture sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a comparative study of the pig cycle, indicating that the current phase of adjustment in the pig farming sector may be nearing its end. It emphasizes the need for the industry to undergo a profitable cycle to repair balance sheets rather than continuing to leverage and expand [2][8]. - The report notes that since 2019, many listed pig farming companies have reported negative cumulative net profits, contrasting with previous cycles where most companies maintained positive profits. The financial pressure on the industry is at its highest since 2006, necessitating a recovery phase [2][8]. - The report suggests that the recent increase in pig prices in 2024 is occurring alongside a decline in upstream raw material prices, which could enhance profitability for pig farming companies [2][8]. Summary by Sections Pig Cycle Overview - Since 2006, the pig industry has experienced four cycles, with the current cycle starting in February 2019 and being the longest to date [8]. Market Sentiment - The report discusses the shift in market sentiment from excessive optimism in 2022 to excessive pessimism in 2024, suggesting that a correction in expectations and valuation for pig farming stocks may be forthcoming [2][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks in the pig farming sector, including: - Wen's Foodstuffs (300498.SZ) - Buy - B - Shennong Group (605296.SH) - Hold - B - Juxing Agriculture (603477.SH) - Hold - B - Tangrenshen (002567.SZ) - Hold - B - New Hope Liuhe (000876.SZ) - Hold - B - Dongrui Co. (001201.SZ) - Hold - B [2].