Minmetals Securities·2024-09-05 06:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of port duty-free sales and the implementation of new policies for city duty-free shops, despite facing challenges in its Hainan operations [7] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 31.265 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.81% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.283 billion yuan, down 15.07% year-on-year [1][2] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 6.2 billion yuan, 7.2 billion yuan, and 8.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to ongoing pressures in the Hainan duty-free business [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue from Hainan and Shanghai was 16.785 billion yuan and 8.5 billion yuan respectively, with Hainan's revenue down 28.97% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 33.87%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.83%, a decrease of 2.54 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market Opportunities - The new city duty-free shop policies are expected to enhance the company's growth prospects, with several cities set to establish new duty-free shops [4] - The company is focusing on improving service offerings to capitalize on the anticipated growth in the duty-free market [4] Profitability Outlook - The company has seen improvements in gross profit margins due to a higher proportion of mid-to-high-end product sales, although overall sales performance has pressured net profit margins [3] - The projected earnings per share for 2024 is 2.985 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.44 [9]