Guoxin Securities·2024-09-05 06:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][5][24] Core Views - The report highlights that product structure optimization combined with increased export volume has led to a significant year-on-year net profit growth of 224% in Q2 2024 [3][6][24] - The company achieved a revenue of 48.57 billion yuan in Q2 2024, with a total vehicle sales of 280,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5% [3][6][24] - The report emphasizes the continuous advancement of the company's new energy strategy, which is expected to drive sales growth through product and technology upgrades [24][29] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022: 137.34 billion yuan - 2023: 173.21 billion yuan - 2024E: 221.54 billion yuan - 2025E: 261.41 billion yuan - 2026E: 305.33 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for 2023 and 2024 are 26.1% and 27.9% respectively [3][29] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2022: 8.27 billion yuan - 2023: 7.02 billion yuan - 2024E: 11.66 billion yuan - 2025E: 13.80 billion yuan - 2026E: 15.97 billion yuan - The net profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 66.1% compared to 2023 [3][29] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022: 0.94 yuan - 2023: 0.83 yuan - 2024E: 1.37 yuan - 2025E: 1.62 yuan - 2026E: 1.88 yuan [3][29] - Profitability Metrics: - EBIT Margin for 2024E is projected at 5.5%, with a net asset return (ROE) of 15.7% [3][29] Market and Sales Performance - The company reported a total vehicle sales of 280,000 units in Q2 2024, with export sales reaching 109,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 51.1% [3][6][24] - The sales performance by brand in Q2 2024 includes: - Haval: 142,000 units - WEY: 10,000 units - Pickup trucks: 48,000 units - Ora: 17,000 units - Tank: 67,000 units, showing a significant increase of 35.9% quarter-on-quarter [3][6][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests an upward revision of profit forecasts due to the anticipated sales growth driven by new models and the company's ongoing transformation towards new energy vehicles [24][29] - The expected net profits for 2024-2026 are revised to 11.66 billion, 13.80 billion, and 15.97 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.37, 1.62, and 1.88 yuan [24][29]