Huafu Securities·2024-09-05 07:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 40.32 CNY based on a projected PB of 1x for 2024 [1][20]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are projected to be -0.14%, 5.37%, and 5.51%, respectively, which are lower than previous estimates [1]. - The net profit growth rates for the same period are forecasted at -0.4%, 5.5%, and 5.9%, also reflecting a downward revision from earlier projections [1]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in performance, with Q2 2024 showing a revenue decline of only -1.5%, an improvement of 3.2 percentage points from Q1 [10]. - The main driver for the marginal improvement in performance is the reduction in the drag from net interest income, which saw a decline of -2.1% in Q2 2024, narrowing the drop by 4 percentage points from Q1 [10][40]. Financial Projections - The company's operating revenue for 2024 is expected to be 338.7 billion CNY, with a slight decrease from 339.1 billion CNY in 2023 [21]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 146 billion CNY for 2024, down from 146.6 billion CNY in 2023 [21]. - The report indicates that the net interest income is expected to stabilize, with a forecast of 2,146 billion CNY for 2024, consistent with the previous year [31]. Asset Quality and Growth - The report notes a slight increase in non-performing loan ratios, with retail loans showing particular pressure, as the overdue rate for consumer credit rose to 3.00% [19][33]. - The growth rate of interest-earning assets is projected at 7.6% as of Q2 2024, indicating a positive trend in asset expansion [10]. - The capital adequacy ratio is expected to remain strong at 18.2% for 2024, reflecting a solid capital position [33].