中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】医药祝嘉琦：9月月报暨2024年中报总结：中报利空出尽，把握Q3基本面改善及行业催化-20240906

Core Insights - The report indicates that the negative impact from the mid-year reports has been fully absorbed, and there is an expectation for improvement in the fundamentals of the pharmaceutical sector in Q3 2024 [2][3] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 3.3% in August 2024, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 3.5% [2] - The report highlights that the market sentiment is expected to recover, driven by a low base from Q3 of the previous year and gradual improvements in fundamentals and policies [2] Monthly Review - In August 2024, the pharmaceutical sector's performance was segmented into three phases, with a slight rebound at the beginning of the month, followed by a decline due to the pressure from mid-year report disclosures [2] - The report notes that companies with better-than-expected performance and those that have seen negative news fully priced in are likely to experience a rebound in Q3 [2] 2024 Mid-Year Report Summary - The cumulative revenue of pharmaceutical companies decreased by 0.2% in the first half of 2024, while total profit fell by 2.5% [2] - The report states that the second quarter saw a revenue decline of 1.3% and a profit drop of 6.4%, indicating that the industry is at a stage of bottoming out under policy pressures [2] - It is anticipated that companies will gradually adapt to the changing policy environment, leading to a recovery in revenue and profit growth in the latter half of 2024 [2] Sector Performance - Among the sub-sectors, chemical preparations and raw materials showed positive performance, with revenue growth rates of 5.06% and 4.64% respectively in H1 2024 [2] - The report ranks the performance of various sub-sectors, with chemical preparations leading in net profit growth at 57.47%, while medical services faced a significant decline of 29.23% [2] Industry Catalysts - Key upcoming events include the 2024 ESMO and WCLC conferences, which are expected to serve as catalysts for the pharmaceutical sector [2] - The report also mentions the anticipated adjustments in the medical insurance directory and the ongoing development of innovative drugs as significant industry dynamics [2]