昇兴股份：三片罐盈利改善，两片罐海外表现靓丽

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.221 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 234 million yuan, an increase of 47.9% [1] - In Q2 2024, the revenue was 1.545 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with a net profit of 112 million yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year [1] - The performance was in line with expectations, with improvements in profitability driven by cost reductions in three-piece cans and an increase in the proportion of high-margin overseas business for two-piece cans [1] Summary by Sections Three-Piece Cans - Customer structure remains stable, with profitability improving due to lower raw material costs, particularly tinplate [1] - Domestic sales are under pressure, particularly from plant protein beverage clients, but capacity optimization and supply chain improvements are expected to enhance competitive advantages [1] - Future demand is anticipated to recover moderately in H2 2024, supported by ongoing adjustments in product offerings and favorable raw material pricing [1] Two-Piece Cans - Overseas performance is strong, with H1 2024 overseas revenue increasing by 17.9% and a gross margin of 22.9%, significantly higher than domestic levels [1] - Profitability is expected to improve in Q3 2024 as can prices recover and aluminum prices decline from their July peak [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 15.5%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.3%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The expense ratio for Q2 2024 was 6.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for gradual reduction as revenues improve in H2 2024 [1][2] Cash Flow and Operational Capability - The net operating cash flow for Q2 2024 was 160 million yuan, an increase of 44 million yuan year-on-year [2] - As of Q2 2024, the turnover days for accounts receivable, accounts payable, and inventory were 94, 50, and 56 days, respectively [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 450 million yuan, 540 million yuan, and 650 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10X, 8X, and 7X [5]