如何看待存量房贷利率调整的可能？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, specifically for various companies within the industry [1][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that interest rate cuts are a practical measure to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on implementation and execution [1][11]. - There is a growing expectation for the adjustment of existing mortgage rates due to the widening gap between existing and new mortgage rates, which is deemed reasonable in the current market environment [1][11]. - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates is expected to reduce the number of early repayment cases, thereby alleviating pressure on the secondary housing market and contributing to stable price expectations [1][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains "Buy" ratings for several companies, including: - Chengdu Investment Holdings (城投控股) [12] - Urban Development (城建发展) [12] - China Merchants Shekou (招商蛇口) [12] - Binjiang Group (滨江集团) [12] - Jianfa Holdings (建发股份) [12] - Yuexiu Property (越秀地产) [12] - China Overseas Land & Investment (中国海外发展) [12] - Longfor Group (龙湖集团) [12] - Greentown Service (绿城服务) [12] - China Resources Land (华润置地) [12] - Poly Property (保利物业) [12] - China Overseas Property (中海物业) [12] - CIFI Holdings (招商积余) [12] - Binjiang Service (滨江服务) [12] Market Dynamics - As of March 2024, the scale of existing housing loans in China is approximately 38 trillion yuan, with an average existing mortgage rate of about 4% [1][5]. - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans in Q2 2024 is projected to be 3.45%, reflecting a 24% decrease compared to Q1 [1][5]. - The report notes that the gap between existing and new mortgage rates has led to an increase in early repayment cases and a growing call for the reduction of existing mortgage rates [1][5]. Policy Adjustments - The report highlights a national adjustment regarding the recognition standards for first-time homebuyers, which has been relaxed, allowing more individuals to qualify for lower mortgage rates [1][7]. - The implementation of the "commercial to public" (商转公) policy has been adopted in over 30 cities to facilitate the adjustment of existing mortgage rates [1][10][11]. Company Performance - Chengdu Investment Holdings reported a revenue of 6.5 billion yuan for H1 2024, with expectations of turning a profit by year-end [12][13]. - Urban Development's revenue for H1 2024 was 65.2 billion yuan, with a focus on key projects expected to yield profits in H2 2024 [12][13]. - China Merchants Shekou's revenue for H1 2024 was 512.7 billion yuan, with a cautious approach to development and a focus on operational growth [12][13]. - Binjiang Group's revenue for H1 2024 was 242 billion yuan, with expectations of profit recovery due to strong land acquisition strategies [12][13]. - Jianfa Holdings reported a revenue of 391 billion yuan for H1 2024, with adjustments made to profit forecasts due to market conditions [12][13].