证券行业2024中报综述：自营投资差异是券商业绩分化的关键

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the securities industry [2] Core Views - The securities industry has undergone stress tests due to market and policy factors, with revenue and net profit declining by 12.7% and 21.9% respectively in H1 2024 [3] - Self-operated business remains the largest revenue source, accounting for 42.2% of total revenue [9] - The industry's profit concentration has increased, with the CR5 of net profit rising by 1.47 percentage points to 47.0% [3] - The brokerage business continues to face pressure, with net income declining by 13.0% in H1 2024 [27] Market and Policy Impact - Revenue from brokerage, investment banking, asset management, self-operated business, and interest income declined by 13.0%, 41.1%, 1.4%, 12.5%, and 29.1% respectively in H1 2024 [9] - Management expenses decreased by 8.7% to 1,114 billion yuan, while credit impairment losses dropped by 31.0% to 18.61 billion yuan [11] - The industry's operating leverage decreased by 3.6% to 3.75 times, with credit leverage and investment leverage declining by 8.8% and 2.1% respectively [14] Brokerage Business - The daily average stock and fund trading volume decreased by 6.8% to 9,846.47 billion yuan in H1 2024 [27] - Commission rates have dropped to 0.02% as of Q1 2024 [27] - Net income from agency trading, seat leasing, and financial product sales declined by 7.5%, 27.7%, and 24.6% respectively in H1 2024 [28] Asset Management Business - The asset management business showed signs of stabilization, with net income increasing by 4.4% to 132.85 billion yuan in H1 2024 [3] - The demand for fixed-income asset management products has risen due to the bond market's strong performance [3] Investment Banking Business - The investment banking business faced significant pressure, with net income declining by 41.1% to 140.03 billion yuan in H1 2024 [9] - The slowdown in equity financing has led to a decline in investment banking revenue, with top-tier securities firms expected to capture a larger market share [3] Self-Operated Business - The self-operated business showed significant divergence, with bond investments becoming a key factor in performance [4] - The total scale of financial assets remained stable, with bond and fund assets increasing by 2.6% and 8.5% respectively in H1 2024 [4] Credit Business - The credit business experienced a slight decline, with the balance of margin trading and securities lending decreasing by 10.3% to 14,809 billion yuan by the end of June 2024 [4] - The interest rate for margin trading and securities lending decreased by 48 basis points to 5.58% [4] Human Resources - The total number of employees in the securities industry decreased by 3.0% to 340,100 by the end of June 2024 [22] - The number of investment advisors and analysts increased by 1.4% and 6.8% respectively, while the number of brokers decreased by 13.4% [23] Key Companies - Key companies such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guolian Securities are rated as "Overweight" [2] - CITIC Securities maintained its leading position in terms of net profit, while China Galaxy rose to the 5th position in H1 2024 [21]