煤炭行业周报：日耗高位，煤价下行时点可能比预想的延后

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2]. Core Views - Current daily coal consumption remains high, suggesting that the timing for a decline in coal prices may be later than previously anticipated. The short-term coal price is expected to stabilize due to sustained high consumption levels [2][3]. - The coal sector's performance pressure is expected to be largely alleviated by the first half of 2024, with a bottoming out of industry ROE anticipated between Q2 and Q3 of 2024. The cyclical nature of the coal industry is expected to weaken, leading to more predictable and stable profits for leading companies [3]. Summary by Sections Daily Consumption and Price Trends - Daily coal consumption remains elevated, driven by high temperatures and a decrease in the proportion of non-electric coal self-generation. As of the first week of September 2024, daily consumption in eight coastal provinces was 2.4 million tons, significantly higher than the 1.88 million tons per day recorded in the same period of 2023, marking a 22% decrease from peak levels [3]. - The short-term coal price is expected to rise due to high daily consumption, with prices likely to remain stable in the near term. The report indicates that coal prices may touch a bottom of 800 yuan per ton [3]. Coal Types and Market Dynamics - For thermal coal, the report notes that high daily consumption is supporting a short-term price rebound, with expectations of stability in the near future. The report highlights that coal prices have slightly increased due to sustained high consumption levels [3][19]. - Coking coal prices have shown signs of recovery, with improved steel output and profitability observed in the market. The report anticipates a positive adjustment in market expectations for steel as the "golden September and silver October" period approaches [3]. Inventory and Pricing Data - As of September 7, 2024, inventory levels at Qinhuangdao port were 4.82 million tons, reflecting a 4.8% increase. Meanwhile, southern port inventories decreased by 1.3% [19]. - The report provides detailed pricing data, indicating that the price of Q5500 thermal coal at various ports has seen slight increases, with prices at Huanghua port reaching 852 yuan per ton, up 0.2% from the previous week [6][10]. Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies with stable profitability, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. It also suggests considering companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and those recovering from performance lows [3].