AVIC Securities·2024-09-09 03:09Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected return exceeding 15% relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index over the next six months [19]. Core Views - The company's mid-year performance is stable and meets expectations, with significant improvements in debt financing and an increase in brokerage market share, leading to positive future expectations [11]. - A major asset restructuring announcement to merge with Haitong Securities is expected to elevate the company's total assets and net assets to the top of the industry, enhancing core functions and optimizing the financial landscape in Shanghai [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved total revenue of 361.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 98.85 billion yuan, down 14.9% [2][12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) for the first half of the year was 8.67%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Business Segments - The total underwriting financing amount for the first half of the year was 128.56 billion yuan, a decline of 12.5%, with equity financing at 36.78 billion yuan (down 15.3%) and bond financing at 91.78 billion yuan (up 5.2%) [3]. - Asset management business net income was 1.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.5%, while the management scale increased, with total assets under management reaching 1,200 billion yuan, up 6.5% from the end of last year [4]. - Brokerage business maintained stability with a market share increase to 6.5%, despite a 10.2% decline in overall market trading volume [5]. Future Projections - The report forecasts basic earnings per share for the years 2023 to 2026 to be 1.24 yuan, 0.98 yuan, and 0.90 yuan respectively, with net asset values projected to be 15.90 yuan, 16.51 yuan, and 16.69 yuan [12][18]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in earnings growth, with projected revenue growth rates of -5.0% for 2023, 3.0% for 2024, and 5.0% for 2025 [12].