策略周报：美联储降息对A股有哪些影响？——美联储降息系列2

Group 1 - The report highlights that the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to have limited positive impact on risk assets, but historically, at least three out of four rate cut cycles since 1995 have seen a corresponding market rebound, suggesting a favorable trading environment until the end of the year [2][7]. - The report draws parallels with the 2019 A-share market performance, indicating that if domestic growth policies are strengthened, a rebound of approximately 5%-10% in the market is anticipated, similar to the rebounds observed in August-September 2019 and January-February 2024 [2][8]. - The report emphasizes that the effectiveness of domestic policy measures will significantly influence the recovery of the market, with the potential for thematic investment opportunities arising from the current economic environment [2][8]. Group 2 - The report identifies three key sectors that may benefit from the current economic conditions: financials and real estate due to macro liquidity easing, consumer staples and appliances as initial beneficiaries of foreign capital inflows, and small-cap growth sectors like TMT and defense as the market stabilizes [3][31]. - From a macro perspective, the report notes that the opening of monetary policy space during the three phases of loose trading in 2019 led to significant performance in large financial sectors, with banks and real estate benefiting from improved liquidity conditions [31][35]. - The report also highlights that during the loose trading periods, foreign capital inflows significantly impacted A-share performance, particularly in sectors favored by foreign investors such as consumer electronics and food and beverage [31][35].