周度策略：逆周期调节预期增强，市场有望企稳回升

Group 1 - The report highlights an expectation of enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments, indicating that the economy is likely to stabilize and rebound. This is supported by recent macroeconomic policies and the ongoing implementation of growth-stabilizing measures [1][2][9]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to increase counter-cyclical adjustment efforts, with room for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, especially as approximately 3.7 trillion yuan in medium-term lending facility (MLF) will mature in the fourth quarter, leading to significant liquidity pressure [5][9]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as semiconductors, home appliances, electricity and utilities, and media, as these are expected to benefit from the anticipated market stabilization [2][10]. Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data, including the ISM manufacturing PMI at 47.2 and non-farm payrolls increasing by 142,000, fell short of expectations, contributing to a heightened probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [8][9]. - The report notes that the U.S. economy is facing increased recession expectations due to weak employment data and declining inflation metrics, which have influenced market sentiment regarding potential Fed rate cuts [8][9]. - The overall market sentiment has been affected by the performance of major indices, with the Dow Jones down 2.93% and the Nasdaq down 5.77%, reflecting a broader trend of declines across global markets [11][12].