中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：担保利差高阶指南：算法优化再探究-20240909

Group 1: Fixed Income Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing the guarantee spread algorithm due to the significant narrowing of guarantee spreads, which affects the assessment of guarantee effectiveness [3][4] - A new calculation method for guarantee spreads is proposed, utilizing excess yield analysis based on the implied ratings of guaranteed and non-guaranteed bonds, which aims to provide more accurate investment decision-making references [3][4] - The average guarantee spread has decreased from 116.08 basis points to 25.45 basis points, indicating a trend of diminishing effectiveness as a measure of guarantee strength [3][4] Group 2: Database Industry Insights - The global database market is dominated by non-relational and hybrid databases, with relational databases still leading in popularity, particularly Oracle, MySQL, and Microsoft SQL Server [4][5] - The domestic database market in China shows a similar trend, with relational databases being predominant, while the demand for non-relational databases is growing [4][5] - The report forecasts that by 2025, China's data volume will surpass that of other countries, potentially driving significant demand for database solutions [4][5] Group 3: Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. non-farm employment data for August showed an increase of 142,000 jobs, which was below expectations, raising concerns about the labor market's health [5][6] - Despite the disappointing job growth, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, and wage growth rebounded, complicating the interpretation of labor market conditions [5][6] - The report suggests that the mixed employment data may lead to uncertainty in market expectations regarding recession and interest rate cuts [5][6] Group 4: Consumer Goods Sector Overview - The consumer goods sector is facing pressure from weak demand and competitive challenges, particularly in the beer and seasoning segments, where sales volumes are declining [6][7] - Despite the challenges, some companies are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved profit margins, particularly in the beer segment [6][7] - The report highlights the need to identify alpha opportunities within the consumer goods sector, focusing on companies with strong independent growth narratives [6][7] Group 5: Electronic Industry Performance - The electronic industry has seen a mixed performance in 2024, with significant declines in semiconductor and display sectors, while other segments like PCB have shown growth [7][8] - The report indicates that the overall revenue and net profit for the electronic sector increased in Q2 2024, with notable growth in the semiconductor and consumer electronics segments [7][8] - Investment recommendations focus on AI-related technologies and domestic production capabilities, suggesting a positive outlook for companies involved in these areas [7][8] Group 6: Aviation and Transportation Sector - The aviation sector experienced a decline in stock performance in August, despite record passenger transport numbers during the summer peak season [8] - The report notes that while the overall market is entering a quieter period post-summer, upcoming holidays may provide a boost to demand [8] - It highlights the operational differentiation among airlines, with smaller private carriers showing resilience compared to larger state-owned airlines [8]