国金证券：国金晨讯-20240909

Market Performance - On September 5, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.28%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell by 0.28%, the STAR 50 Index fell by 0.15%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.65%, the Small and Medium Composite Index rose by 0.43%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.07% [3][4][5] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 534.8 billion yuan [4] - Among the 31 primary industries of the Shenwan industry, media (2.56%), real estate (1.98%), commercial retail (1.56%), computers (1.36%), and non-bank financials (1.28%) led the gains, while coal (-1.42%), household appliances (-0.86%), petrochemicals (-0.68%), basic chemicals (-0.4%), and banking (-0.16%) lagged behind [6] Overseas New Tobacco Industry - The overseas new tobacco industry continues to grow, with the compliant vaping market expected to expand significantly [4][7] - Philip Morris International: The proportion of new tobacco revenue further increased in the first half of 2024, with the Japanese market maintaining rapid growth [7] - British American Tobacco: Vaping e-cigarette revenue remained stable in the first half of 2024, while the HNB business declined [7] - Altria: NJOY performed well, with sales and market share further increasing [7] - Imperial Brands: Overall new tobacco growth was steady, driven by expansion in Western Europe and emerging markets [7] - Japan Tobacco: New tobacco products grew rapidly in the first half of 2024, with strong performance in overseas markets [7] Securities Industry Performance - The securities industry saw a significant recovery in investment business in the first half of 2024, driving marginal improvement in performance [4][8] - The performance of the securities sector in the second half of 2024 is expected to further improve, with the upward potential depending on the stock and bond market trends and the intensity of investment-side reforms [8] - The overall valuation and fund holdings of the securities sector are at historically low levels, with limited downside [8] - Recommendations include focusing on leading securities firms with relatively stable performance and low valuations under strong regulatory environments, such as Guotai Junan, and small and medium-sized securities firms with distinctive fixed-income businesses and significantly low performance bases in the second half of the year [8] Guotai Junan Company Research - Guotai Junan has a strong shareholder background and leading comprehensive strength, making it a potential candidate for building an international first-class investment bank [9] - Business highlights include solid retail advantages, dual public fund empowerment in asset management, making up for IPO shortcomings in investment banking, and actively developing customer demand in institutional business [9] Credo Company Review - Credo disclosed its FY25Q1 (May 2024 to July 2024) performance on September 5, 2024, with revenue of $59.71 million, a year-on-year increase of 70$9.54 million, while non-GAAP net profit was $7.04 million, achieving a year-on-year turnaround [9] - The company expects FY25Q2 revenue to be between$65 million and $68 million, with GAAP gross margin between 61.3% and 63.3%, and non-GAAP gross margin between 62.0% and 64.0% [9] - The company anticipates accelerated growth in the second half of FY25, with AEC products achieving volume in major customers and expected to achieve batch shipments in more major customers [9] Greentown China Company Review - Greentown China released its August 2024 operating data report on September 5, 2024, with total sales of 165.6 billion yuan from January to August 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [10] - Self-invested sales were 104.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, while construction agency sales were 61.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [10] - The company's sales showed resilience, with cautious investment focusing on core cities, and performance is expected to gradually improve as high-quality projects from 2022 onwards enter the market [10] Quantitative Industry Allocation - In August, the enhanced industry rotation strategy with excess returns had a return rate of -7.24%, with an excess return rate of -1.12% [10] - For September, the recommended industries are non-bank financials, textiles and apparel, non-ferrous metals, banking, and electronics [10] - The industry rotation strategy based on valuation momentum had a return rate of -5.57% in August, with an excess return rate of 0.58% relative to the industry equal-weighted benchmark [10] - For September, the recommended industries are textiles and apparel, non-bank financials, communications, real estate, and non-ferrous metals [10]