Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 11.379 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-over-year decline of 8.9%, with a net profit of 565 million yuan, down 5.89% year-over-year [2][3]. - Weak demand and rising aluminum prices have pressured revenue and gross profit, but active cost optimization measures have helped maintain profitability [2][3]. - The company is focusing on product brand restructuring and optimizing its product mix to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company's main business revenue decreased by 9.00% to 11.335 billion yuan, with a sales volume drop of 15.7% [2][3]. - The gross margin fell by 0.91 percentage points to 34.56%, resulting in a gross profit decline of 11.33% to 3.918 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company implemented cost optimization strategies, reducing the expense ratio by 1.84 percentage points [2][3]. Product Performance - The company's market share in the soda category remains above 50%, despite a revenue decline of 7.83% to 8.577 billion yuan [3][5]. - Juice category revenue fell by 14.00% to 1.661 billion yuan, reflecting overall industry pressure [3][5]. - Water category revenue saw a significant drop of 32.3% to 532 million yuan, attributed to intense price competition in the bottled water market [5]. - Other products, including ready-to-drink coffee, grew by 30.55% to 564 million yuan, indicating strong performance in this segment [5]. Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain stable growth in its soda business, projecting a revenue decline of 4% for 2024, with a recovery anticipated in the second half of the year [6]. - The juice business is also expected to improve, with a projected revenue decline of 5% for 2024 [6]. - The water category is forecasted to face challenges, with revenue predictions of -30% for 2024 [6]. - Other business segments are expected to grow significantly, with revenue growth forecasts of 30% for 2024 [6]. Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 20.584 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits of 838 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 0.30 yuan [7][10]. - The report suggests a PE valuation range of 11-14 times for 2024, translating to a share price range of 3.30-4.20 HKD [7][8].
中国食品：短期弱需求致收入承压，核心产品市占率稳固，积极提质增效保障盈利能力提升