工程机械行业2024年中报总结：承上启下，静待曙光

Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating for the engineering machinery sector is Buy [1] Core Views - The engineering machinery industry is transitioning from the left side to the right side of the cycle, with a slow recovery slope [1] - Domestic excavator sales turned positive in March 2024, with a cumulative increase of about 40% in the sector, but the recovery slope remains slow [1] - Revenue growth is weak, but companies have shown strong control over expenses, cash flow, and risk exposure, leading to positive profit growth despite significant foreign exchange impacts [1] - Domestic excavators and overseas non-excavator products performed well, with market share gains in both domestic and international markets [1] - Profit margins improved due to stable gross margins, reduced expenses, and effective hedging against foreign exchange pressures [1] - Operating quality improved with reduced risk exposure and optimized cash flow [1] Revenue Analysis - Overall Revenue: In Q2 2024, the combined revenue of the top 5 domestic manufacturers was 71 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, indicating weak demand recovery [7] - Product Breakdown: - Domestic sales growth: Excavators (+5%) > Loaders (-3%) > Cranes (-19%) > Aerial Work Platforms (-34%) > Tower Cranes (-63%) [8] - Export growth: Aerial Work Platforms (+23%) > Loaders (+8%) > Cranes (+7%) > Tower Cranes (0%) > Excavators (-14%) [8] - Regional Breakdown: - Domestic demand is weak but improving, with excavators leading the recovery [14] - Overseas markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are performing well, with local companies gaining market share [14] Profit Analysis - Gross Margin: The average gross margin of the top 5 domestic manufacturers in Q2 2024 was 24%, slightly increasing by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [22] - Net Margin: The average net margin improved to 8%, up by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting healthier balance sheets [22] - Expense Control: Sales, management, and R&D expenses decreased, with R&D expenses showing the most significant reduction [24] - Foreign Exchange Impact: Despite significant foreign exchange losses, companies used hedging and other methods to mitigate the impact [25] Operating Quality - Risk Exposure: The total risk exposure of the top 5 domestic manufacturers decreased by 9% year-on-year, with a more significant reduction in off-balance-sheet exposure [30] - Cash Flow: Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow of 7.5 billion CNY in Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 238% [34] - Inventory Management: Inventory turnover improved, with inventory days decreasing by 8 days year-on-year [34] Investment Recommendations - Domestic Demand: The recovery of excavators and non-excavator products is expected to drive domestic demand [36] - Export Opportunities: Markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are expected to drive export recovery, with potential growth in Indonesia and India [36] - Recommended Stocks: Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, Liugong, Hengli Hydraulics, and Zhejiang Dingli are recommended, with attention to Shantui and Edd [1] Stock Performance and Valuation - Sany Heavy Industry: Latest closing price of 16.13 CNY, with a target price of 18.17 CNY and a 2024E PE of 22.10x [2] - XCMG: Latest closing price of 6.20 CNY, with a target price of 8.23 CNY and a 2024E PE of 11.27x [2] - Zoomlion: Latest closing price of 5.95 CNY, with a target price of 7.47 CNY and a 2024E PE of 11.90x [2] - Liugong: Latest closing price of 9.37 CNY, with a target price of 10.90 CNY and a 2024E PE of 12.84x [2] - Hengli Hydraulics: Latest closing price of 51.08 CNY, with a target price of 59.75 CNY and a 2024E PE of 25.67x [2] - Zhejiang Dingli: Latest closing price of 50.28 CNY, with a target price of 64.36 CNY and a 2024E PE of 11.72x [2]