钢铁行业2024年中报总结：成本压力边际减轻，产能过剩矛盾难解

Investment Rating - Neutral rating maintained for the steel industry [5] Core Views - Cost pressures marginally eased in H1 2024 due to self-imposed production cuts by steel companies, leading to a decline in raw material prices [1][3] - Overcapacity remains a significant issue, with H1 2024 revenue down 7.6% YoY and Q2 revenue down 9.6% YoY, though Q2 saw a 1.6% QoQ increase [1][3] - H1 2024 costs decreased by 7.2% YoY, with Q2 costs down 9.7% YoY and up 0.5% QoQ [1][3] - H1 2024 non-GAAP net profit plummeted by 94% YoY, with Q2 non-GAAP net profit down 14% YoY but up 225% QoQ [1][3] - H1 2024 annualized ROE dropped to 0.66%, down 68.7% YoY, primarily due to declining net profit margins [1][3] Industry Overview - Weak demand from construction and real estate sectors persisted in H1 2024, while manufacturing demand, particularly from automotive and home appliance exports, remained stable [3] - Steel prices in Q2 2024 fell by 3.8% YoY and 4.5% QoQ, but crude steel production increased by 5.5% QoQ, driven by seasonal improvements and reduced production cuts [3] - Iron ore and coking coal prices in Q2 2024 fell by 9.5% and 11.2% QoQ, respectively, easing cost pressures for steel companies [3] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue for the steel sector was RMB 970.1 billion, down 7.62% YoY, with Q2 revenue at RMB 488.9 billion, down 9.58% YoY but up 1.60% QoQ [10] - H1 2024 operating costs were RMB 922.6 billion, down 7.2% YoY, with Q2 costs at RMB 462.3 billion, down 9.7% YoY and up 0.5% QoQ [12] - H1 2024 gross profit margin was 4.90%, down 0.48 ppts YoY, while Q2 gross margin improved to 5.44%, up 0.12 ppts YoY and 1.09 ppts QoQ [14][16] - H1 2024 gross profit was RMB 47.5 billion, down 15.83% YoY, with Q2 gross profit at RMB 26.6 billion, down 7.51% YoY but up 27.07% QoQ [17][18] Profitability and Expenses - H1 2024 non-GAAP net profit was RMB 348 million, down 94.13% YoY, with Q2 non-GAAP net profit at RMB 1.75 billion, down 13.95% YoY but up 224.71% QoQ [22][24] - H1 2024 operating expenses were RMB 43.48 billion, up 0.76% YoY, with Q2 expenses at RMB 22.33 billion, up 3.49% YoY and 5.54% QoQ [19][20] - R&D and financial expenses increased in Q2 2024, reflecting ongoing efforts by steel companies to optimize product structures and upgrade from ordinary steel to high-quality and special steel [19][20] Outlook and Investment Recommendations - Steel companies are expected to resume production in September, potentially increasing supply pressure, especially for construction steel [4] - Investment focus is on high-quality steel and special steel leaders, such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, CITIC Special Steel, and Baosteel, as well as companies with strong competitive positions and high-end product upgrades [4] - Resource companies with tight supply-demand dynamics, such as Hebei Iron and Steel Resources and Jinduicheng Molybdenum, are also recommended [4] - In the new materials sector, companies with strong growth potential and capital expenditure, such as Dongmu Co, Tiangong International, and Sino-Platinum Metals, are highlighted [4]