国茂股份：盈利能力环比改善，静待制造业需求修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to insufficient domestic demand, but its market share continues to increase. The company, as a leading manufacturer of general reducers in China, is expected to benefit from the elimination of less competitive small enterprises in the market, which will enhance its market share and narrow the gap with foreign brands [3][4]. - The company's profitability has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with stable expenses despite a decline in revenue scale. The gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year but increased by 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter, while the net margin also showed a similar trend [3][4]. - The company is focusing on structural market opportunities in downstream sectors such as plastic machinery and oil extraction equipment, while also expanding its presence in niche markets. The sales of specialized and high-end reducers are showing positive growth, and the company is successfully entering new fields and securing significant projects [4][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.268 billion yuan, down 5.29% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 146 million yuan, down 14.64% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 683 million yuan, down 4.25% year-on-year, and net profit was 82 million yuan, down 10.26% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company's reducer sales (excluding Modoli products) grew by approximately 4.23% year-on-year in H1 2024, with market share further increasing [3][4]. Business Development - The company is consolidating its core business while seizing structural market opportunities in downstream sectors. The sales of modular reducers and other specialized products have increased, with a 7.9% year-on-year improvement in per capita output in the general reducer business [4][3]. - The company is actively developing specialized and high-end reducers, achieving breakthroughs in new fields and securing bulk orders from notable clients [4][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 374 million, 435 million, and 513 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 14x, 12x, and 10x [4][3].