北马其顿经济新校准DSGE模型概述（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The paper presents a calibrated DSGE model tailored for the economy of North Macedonia, developed through a collaboration between the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia and the IMF, focusing on the unique characteristics of a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate regime [3][9][10]. - The model aims to enhance the understanding of the business cycle drivers in North Macedonia and serves as an additional analytical tool for policy analysis, complementing existing models [10][11]. - The model incorporates sector-specific technologies and trends to accurately reflect the structural changes in the Macedonian economy, including the Balassa-Samuelson effect [3][9][24]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction highlights the increasing reliance of central banks on advanced macroeconomic models like DSGE for policy analysis and forecasting, particularly in emerging markets [8][9]. Stylized Facts of the Economy of North Macedonia - The Macedonian economy is characterized by a fixed exchange rate regime and has experienced significant structural changes, with a focus on maintaining price stability through a stable nominal exchange rate [14][18]. - Historical data shows an average GDP growth rate of approximately 2.6%, with notable contractions during the Global Financial Crisis, political crises, and the COVID pandemic [14][18]. Structure of the Model - The model includes various sectors such as households, production, exports, and imports, each with specific optimization problems and first-order conditions [25][35][40]. - Households are modeled to optimize utility while facing constraints related to consumption, investment, and labor supply [25][27]. Calibration - The calibration process involved iterative testing to ensure the model's properties align with empirical data, focusing on impulse response functions and historical simulations [61][62]. - Key parameters were set based on observed data, including the share of labor in production (0.6) and the share of domestic production in final production (0.475) [64][66]. Model Diagnostics - The model's steady-state characteristics were compared with observed data, revealing that the calibrated shares of private consumption, investment, and exports align closely with historical averages [68][70]. - The model reflects a higher export share, indicating a trend growth rate that is expected to continue over the forecast horizon [70].