商业贸易行业专题报告：东南亚国别消费研究：越南—人口红利期，消费高增长

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Vietnam consumer sector [1] Core Views - Vietnam's economy is transitioning towards secondary and tertiary industries, with consumption remaining the dominant driver of demand [1][9] - Vietnam is in a demographic dividend period, with high consumption growth and significant potential for further expansion [1][19] - The retail market is primarily offline, but e-commerce is growing rapidly and has substantial room for development [1][46] Economic Overview - Vietnam's GDP reached $419.7 billion in 2023, accounting for 11% of ASEAN's total GDP [1][9] - The economy has shifted from agriculture to manufacturing and services, with manufacturing contributing 24.8% to GDP in 2022 [1][9] - Consumption accounts for 64% of GDP, higher than China's 53-55%, indicating a strong domestic demand-driven economy [14] Consumption Trends - Vietnam's total consumption grew from $136.7 billion in 2015 to $218.7 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 6.1% [1][19] - The population is young, with a median age of 34, and 23% of the population is aged 20-34, providing a strong labor force and consumption base [1][30] - E-commerce is growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 35% from 2018-2023, and is expected to grow at 21% from 2023-2028 [46][64] Retail Channels - Vietnam's retail market reached $126.3 billion in 2023, accounting for 19% of ASEAN's total retail market [46] - Traditional, modern, and e-commerce channels account for 37%, 48%, and 14% of the retail market, respectively [46] - E-commerce platforms like Shopee, Lazada, and Tiki dominate the market, with Shopee holding a 31% market share [64] Key Companies - Bach Hoa Xanh: A leading supermarket chain with over 1,700 stores, focusing on fresh produce and daily necessities [51] - WinMart: A major supermarket chain with over 3,600 stores, dominating the northern and central markets [51] - Central Retail Corp (CRC): A key player in the hypermarket sector, with a 69% market share in Vietnam [54] - Shopee: The largest e-commerce platform in Vietnam, with a 31% market share and a strong presence across Southeast Asia [64][65] Future Outlook - Vietnam's retail market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2023-2028, driven by urbanization, rising incomes, and e-commerce expansion [46] - The middle class is expected to grow significantly, with the highest income groups (spending $30-70/day) projected to increase from 4% in 2020 to 20% by 2030 [38] - E-commerce is expected to continue its rapid growth, with platforms like TikTok and Mobile World gaining market share [64][67]