资产配置跟踪周报：市场底部特征明显之下的思考：弹簧不会被压得太久

Core Insights - The overall performance of major asset classes shows a clear divergence, with the bond market strengthening significantly, commodity markets trending downward, and equity assets declining amidst volatility [1][5][10] - The A-share market continues to decline, but signs of a bottom are becoming more apparent, suggesting a potential rebound may be near [1][5][10] Equity Market Analysis - The persistent decline in A-shares, coupled with trading volumes occasionally exceeding 500 billion, indicates a lack of market confidence. However, since May, the bottom characteristics of A-shares have become increasingly evident, suggesting a rebound may be imminent [1][5][10] - The risk premium for equity assets has gradually increased, surpassing levels seen on February 5 of this year and approaching the highest values in nearly a decade, indicating a potential market rebound [1][5][6] - Overall valuations of A-shares are nearing the lows established in February 2024, creating more attractive buying opportunities. The current market turnover is below 600 billion, suggesting that low trading volumes are associated with lower market prices [1][5][6] - The disclosure of mid-year earnings has likely released market risks, reducing concerns about equity allocations. Excluding real estate and power equipment sectors, listed companies have shown a year-on-year profit growth exceeding 2% [1][5][7] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a clear upward trend, with yields across various maturities declining significantly, particularly the 10-year government bond yield breaking through key levels [1][10][11] - The expectation of economic improvement in the second half of the year, along with the central bank's active guidance on yields, suggests that market trading behavior is gradually returning to rationality [10][11] - Short-term bonds are recommended for stability, as the risk in the bond market is becoming more manageable [10][11] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market is experiencing a volatile environment, with gold assets maintaining their allocation value. The weakening U.S. economic data is increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [4][15] - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, and the global consensus on de-dollarization supports gold's value as an alternative to the U.S. dollar [4][15]