Conflict and Firms’ Performance

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - The study reveals that higher conflict exposure does not significantly impact firm profits, as it leads to reductions in both sales and total costs, indicating a decrease in overall economic activity despite stable profits [3][29] - The analysis utilizes longitudinal firm-level data from 91 countries between 2006 and 2019, focusing on the effects of conflict exposure on various firm outcomes [3][7] - The findings suggest that firms in countries with low-quality bureaucracy experience more pronounced negative effects from conflict exposure compared to those in countries with high-quality bureaucracy [9][29] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report highlights the prevalence of conflict and political violence affecting over 1.7 billion people globally, with significant economic activity continuing under such conditions [7] - It emphasizes the shift from macroeconomic to microeconomic analyses of conflict's effects on firms [7] Data - The primary data source is the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES), which includes information from approximately 180,000 firms across 148 countries, focusing on privately owned firms in the formal sector [12] - The study constructs a firm-specific measure of conflict exposure based on the number of political violence events within a 20 km radius of each firm's location [15] Empirical Strategy - The report employs a fixed-effects model to estimate the impact of conflict exposure on firm outcomes, including sales, total costs, and profits [20] - The identification strategy assumes that conflict events near a firm's location are uncorrelated with any latent determinants of its economic performance [20] Results - Increased conflict exposure leads to a significant reduction in median sales by 2.8% for a one-standard-deviation increase in conflict events [21] - Conflict exposure results in a significant reduction in total production costs, primarily due to diminished availability of inputs rather than lower input prices [22] - The null effect on profits indicates that firms adjust their production costs in response to reduced sales [23] Mechanisms - Conflict exposure reduces a firm's access to raw materials and intermediate inputs, particularly imported ones, leading to decreased output [31] - The analysis shows that conflict exposure results in a shift towards employing more unskilled workers, thereby reducing total labor costs [32]